# Market Analysis

## 🌐 Market Analysis

### Solana MEV: Explosive Growth, Unequal Distribution

Solana's MEV market grew explosively in 2024. Jito's validator tip revenue grew at 32% month-over-month, reaching an all-time high of $210M in November 2024. For the first time, Solana validator MEV revenue surpassed Ethereum that year.

But this enormous revenue is concentrating in the hands of a few.

***

### Solana MEV Key Metrics

| Metric                          | Value                 |
| ------------------------------- | --------------------- |
| Jito monthly tip revenue (peak) | $210M (November 2024) |
| Annual Jito tips total          | $674M+                |
| Jito total stake                | 374M SOL              |
| Jito Client market share        | 94%+ (by stake)       |

***

### Jito Tips Performance Data

| Period                   |  Total APY |  Tips APY  | Tips Share |
| ------------------------ | :--------: | :--------: | :--------: |
| 2024 average             |    7.71%   |   \~1.15%  |     15%    |
| 2024 Q3                  |    7.12%   |   \~0.6%   |    8.2%    |
| November 2024 (peak)     |   11.78%   |   \~3.5%   |     30%    |
| Current (2025, downturn) | \~5.3–5.5% | \~0.4–0.5% |    \~8%    |

*Source: Figment Q1 2025 Solana Validator Report*

***

### Jito's Evolution: From Mempool Closure to BAM

Jito closed its public mempool in March 2024, citing user harm from sandwich attacks. It then announced BAM (Block Assembly Marketplace) in July 2025 and launched on mainnet in September.

**What happened after the mempool closure:**

* **Private mempools emerged:** Private channels appeared where only select validators could monopolize MEV
* **Black market formed:** Secret deals offering MEV revenue-sharing spread across the network
* **Validator inequality:** 30+ validators were excluded from the Foundation delegation program

**The DeezNode case:** A private mempool that emerged after Jito's closure, earning **65,880 SOL ($13.43M)** in 30 days. MEV didn't disappear — it just concentrated further among the privileged few.

***

### Current Market Data — Tips APY

| Metric                       | Value      | Source       |
| ---------------------------- | ---------- | ------------ |
| Base inflation APY           | \~4.9%     | Solana       |
| Tips APY (current, downturn) | \~0.4–0.5% | Observed     |
| Tips APY (average)           | \~1–1.5%   | Figment 2024 |
| Tips APY (peak)              | \~3.5%     | Figment      |

***

### Validator Revenue Comparison — 20M SOL Benchmark

Excluding base staking APY (4.9%), pure tips revenue only:

| Scenario                  | Tips Increase | Annual Tips | Monthly Tips |
| ------------------------- | :-----------: | :---------: | :----------: |
| Current (Jito)            |       —       |     $45M    |    $3.75M    |
| Conservative (+60%)       |      +60%     |     $72M    |      $6M     |
| **Base scenario (+150%)** |   **+150%**   | **$112.5M** |  **$9.38M**  |
| Optimistic (+261%)        |     +261%     |   $162.4M   |    $13.53M   |

**Key takeaway:** Under Flowra's base scenario, annual tips revenue increases by **+$67.5M (+150%)**. Grounded in Ethereum MEV-Boost empirical data (+60–261%). 


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